主题：企业年龄分布与2008年经济大衰退
Firm Demographics and the Great Recession
报告信息
报告人 吴沛凡 博士 纽约大学
时 间 2018年6月8日（星期五）14：00
地 点 上海对外经贸大学松江校区 博识楼113
主 办 上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院、区域与产业发展研究中心、经济学创新实验班
报告人简介
吴沛凡, 纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济系博士五年级学生。研究方向为宏观经济学、公司金融和产业组织理论。具体而言，他使用异质性动态随机一般均衡模型，定量分析企业和产业的演化过程，以及微观异质性对于宏观变量的反馈效果。2013年毕业于清华经管学院，获经济学和数学学士学位；2017年获得纽约大学斯特恩商学院硕士学位。
论文摘要
The last U.S. recession stands out not only for its depth, but also for the rather slow recovery that followed it. What is less well known is that the number of productive units – establishments – also dropped substantially, while it kept growing in occasion of the three prior recessions. The age distribution of plants also changed in unprecedented ways. The fraction of young firms dropped first – in a rather dramatic fashion – and then rebounded. Did such dynamics contribute to slowing down the recovery?
We address this question by evaluating the marginal effect of shocks to the entry margin in a general equilibrium business cycle model with heterogeneous firms, calibrated to reproduce key features of firms’ life cycle.
We show that a decline in new business formation comparable to the one experienced by the US economy post-2007 –while having no contemporaneous effects – leads to a three-year increase in the half-life of output’s recovery and to a considerable slow–down in the growth rate of measured productivity. The shock triggers a temporary but persistent increase in the average capital of operating firms. Because of decreasing returns, this leads to lower productive efficiency.